id: c0d1988753c540b0a5b2932d8d4f97b4
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item_id: 4d3385a7a71c427eacea8e8b8a2abf6b
item_updated_time: 1784277466560
title_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"Hand #29 (ea30be42) — ATs Flop Fold (Too Tight)\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":47}]"
body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"# Hand #29 — ATs Flop Fold (Too Tight)\\\n\\\n**Date:** 2026-06-23\\\n**Issue:** B7 — bot folds strong made hands too easily postflop\\\n**Severity:** High\\\n**Config:** `cash_nl.toml` (Gen 3: ng_preflop + g3_postflop_rollout)\\\n\\\n## Situation\\\n\\\n| | |\\\n|---|---|\\\n| **Hero** | As Td |\\\n| **Position** | UTG (#3/7) |\\\n| **Street** | Flop |\\\n| **Board** | [Ts Ks 7d] |\\\n| **Pot** | $17,000 |\\\n| **To call** | $1,000 (1 BB) |\\\n| **Pot odds** | ~6% needed (18:1) |\\\n| **Active** | 5 |\\\n\\\n## Action Sequence\\\n\\\n1. **Preflop:** Hero calls 2 BB with ATs from MP1 → standard\\\n2. **Preflop (2nd):** Hero calls 1 BB more (squeeze raise, 14:1 pot odds) → standard\\\n3. **Flop:** [Ts Ks 7d] — someone bets $1,000 into $17,000 pot (tiny stab)\\\n4. **Bot decision: FOLD** ← **PROBLEM**\\\n\\\n## Why This Is Wrong\\\n\\\n- Hero has **pair of tens + ace kicker** (second pair on K-high board)\\\n- Plus a **backdoor spade flush draw** (As + Ks on board)\\\n- Getting **18:1 pot odds** — needs only ~6% equity to break even\\\n- Even against a tight range (AK, KQ, sets, two-pair), pair of tens + ace kicker has well above 6% equity\\\n- This is a **trivial call** — folding here is egregiously tight\\\n\\\n## Likely Root Cause\\\n\\\nB7 issue — the g3_postflop_rollout strategy undervalues made hands when facing bets, particularly medium-strength pairs. The `bet_adj_cap` and call thresholds may be too conservative, causing the bot to fold hands that have clear pot-odds justification to continue.\\\n\\\n## Hand History\\\n\\\n```\\\nBolsa: posts big blind $1000\\\nDealt to Bolsa [As Td]\\\nNobodys: calls $1000          (limp)\\\nSPANKFEST2000: raises to $2000 (min-raise squeeze)\\\nBolsa: calls $1000             (14:1 pot odds)\\\nWrislocked: calls $1000\\\nKingZa08: calls $1000\\\nahmad_kaab: folds\\\n\\\nFLOP: [Ts Ks 7d]\\\nGreenApplez: checks\\\nBorchinela: bets $1000         (tiny stab into 17000 pot)\\\n[BOT] Bolsa → FOLD            ← should call\\\n```\\\n\\\n## Server Log\\\n\\\n```\\\n[BOT] Bolsa → Fold (street=Flop hole=AsTd board=[Ts Ks 7d] pot=17000 cur_bet=1000\\\n  min_raise=2000 to_call=1000 hero_stack=184500 active=5 btn=4 sb=6 bb=7\\\n  hero=0(UTG(#3/5))\\\n  players=[0=184500s/0w 1=477620s/0wF 3=185750s/0w 4*BTN=159500s/0w\\\n           5=137700s/0wF 6*SB=194500s/0w 7*BB=80500s/0wF 8=183000s/1000w])\\\n```\\\n\\\n## Correct Play\\\n\\\n**Call.** Pair of tens + ace kicker + backdoor flush for 1 BB at 18:1 is an easy call. Even raising could be considered against a tiny stab from a likely weak range.\\\n\\\n## Related\\\n\\\n- B7 (Open Issues Tracker `60976d006f58404387784a6b90ebf04c`)\\\n- Same root cause as Hand #3 (AQo SB fold)\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":2474}]"
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updated_time: 2026-07-17T08:46:47.517Z
created_time: 2026-07-17T08:46:47.517Z
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