id: 1ae4e80875a04c5b98e45f8797056e6f
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item_type: 1
item_id: 14fd622674e9471999d568afee9da624
item_updated_time: 1782623891596
title_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"Hand Analysis: Stack Loss + Pot Odds Gap (2026-06-27)\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":53}]"
body_diff: "[{\"diffs\":[[1,\"# Hand Analysis: Stack Loss (2026-06-27)\\\n\\\n## Summary\\\nBolsa lost the entire ~8.2M stack in two consecutive hands on \\\"Six of the Best\\\" (5K/10K blinds).\\\n\\\n## Hand 1: 77 vs 94 — Lost ~1.2M\\\n- HERO: 77 (underpair to J-9-5 board)\\\n- Board: 5h 9c Jh 5c Td\\\n- HERO raised flop with underpair 77 → bet turn → bet river\\\n- Villain had 94o (two pair 99+55 > HERO's 77+55)\\\n- **Issue:** Over-aggressive with medium pair as underpair\\\n\\\n## Hand 2: 66 vs AJ — Lost entire 7M stack (THE KILLER)\\\n- HERO: 66 (underpair to 9-3-8 board)\\\n- Board: 9c 3s 8s Ah 2c\\\n- Flop: HERO raised villain's small bet → villain called\\\n- Turn (Ah): Villain CHECK-RAISED 600K → HERO CALLED with underpair 66\\\n- River (2c): Villain bet 820K → HERO SHOVED ALL-IN 7M → villain called with AJ (pair of aces)\\\n- **Result:** Villain wins 14M pot. HERO loses entire stack.\\\n\\\n### Critical Mistakes\\\n1. Called turn check-raise with underpair 66 facing an Ace\\\n2. Shoved all-in for 7M with pair of sixes (only better hands call)\\\n\\\n## Root Cause: Pot Odds Gap in should_raise\\\n\\\n### Analysis of decision logic\\\n\\\n**`should_call` (line 1229):** ✅ Properly uses pot odds\\\n- `required_equity = ctx.pot_odds()` \\\n- Adjusts threshold based on odds excess\\\n- Multi-way cap, no-pair floor, pot-odds floor\\\n\\\n**`should_raise` (line 1319):** ❌ Does NOT use pot odds\\\n- No consideration of `ctx.pot_odds()` or `required_equity`\\\n- No consideration of effective raise amount vs pot\\\n- Only uses: base threshold + facing aggression penalty + draw quality + bluff equity + protection\\\n\\\n**Preflop raise:** ❌ No pot odds consideration\\\n- `determine_raise_cards_threshold` uses position, num_raises, num_callers — not pot odds\\\n\\\n### The Fix Needed\\\n`should_raise` needs:\\\n1. Pot odds gate — when facing large bets, raising requires stronger hands\\\n2. Raise sizing sanity check — overbets only with very strong hands\\\n3. SPR awareness — high SPR requires stronger hands to shove all-in\"]],\"start1\":0,\"start2\":0,\"length1\":0,\"length2\":1886}]"
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updated_time: 2026-06-28T05:27:38.842Z
created_time: 2026-06-28T05:27:38.842Z
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